Professor of Intelligence Studies Kari Liuhto: Foresight is paramount in the new world order

When journalists are looking for an expert to comment on the Russian economy, trade and relations between Europe and Russia, sanctions against Russia, or Russia's hybrid warfare, a phone rings at Turku School of Economics of the University of Turku. Finns who follow the latest news are probably familiar with Professor of International Business Kari Liuhto. 

As a researcher, Liuhto specialises in Russian and Baltic Sea region economies. Liuhto is also a long-time Director of the Pan-European Institute and the Centrum Balticum Foundation.

Since January, Liuhto’s phone has been ringing even more frequently. His new post as Finland's first Professor of Intelligence Studies has sparked a great deal of interest. It is a joint professorship between the University of Turku and the National Defence University. 

But how did a researcher in international business become the pioneer of intelligence studies in Finland? It all goes back to Liuhto's choice of language studies as a teenager, which later became a decisive factor in his career.

“I grew up in Joutseno in Eastern Finland and my mother's family comes from Olonets Karelia, which is part of Russia. My grandmother's family has some wild stories from the Soviet era and the war years. In the eighth grade, we had to choose a language to study at school, and my grandmother said `take Russian, because no one else studies it´. The choice I made on the basis of her advice has guided my career," Liuhto says. 

After his matriculation examination and military service, Liuhto applied to both Turku School of Economics and the Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv in Ukraine, where Liuhto wanted to study after learning that his grandfather had been Ukrainian.

"It soon became clear that the Soviet-era education was brainwashing, and I wanted to return home."

Liuhto was accepted to both universities. He enrolled in Turku as a non-attending student and went to Kyiv to study the Russian language in his first autumn as a student. The year was 1987.

“It was a tough experience for a young man in his twenties. Everything was in short supply, our movements were restricted, and our passports were confiscated by the authorities. It soon became clear that the Soviet-era education was brainwashing, and I wanted to return home. It took almost two months to get my passport back. In addition, I was living only 100 kilometres from Chernobyl, where the nuclear power plant had exploded a year earlier. However, the nuclear disaster was not talked about in the Soviet Union. It was an unsettling experience.”

Liuhto returned to Turku to study international administration. A seminar paper on joint ventures between Finland and the Soviet Union spurred Liuhto to switch to the international business study track, where he was mentored by Urpo Kivikari, a specialist in Eastern trade. Eastern Europe soon proved to be a turbulent research topic. 

“The Soviet Union was already breaking apart, and in the end, the name of the country in the title of my thesis changed just before I completed it. And it wasn't the first time. A few years earlier, Czechoslovakia was dissolved. I knew I wanted to continue to a doctorate, but my research topic was starting to get a bit uninspiring," Liuhto laughs.

Liuhto ended up studying abroad again. He moved to the University of Glasgow, where Professor Tauno Tiusanen, who had caused a stir in Finland with his criticism towards the Soviet Union, headed the Institute of Russian and East European Studies. In Glasgow, Liuhto completed his dissertation on Estonian independence and transformation, the first one of his two doctoral dissertations. It brought him an invitation to become an assistant professor at Lappeenranta University of Technology, where he continued to study Russian relations. 

Years of work as a researcher specialising in Russian business sharpened his perspective. For Liuhto, the picture of a changing Russia began to emerge even while others were still promoting collaboration.

“At the turn of the millennium, I was organising a seminar to which we wanted to invite Mikhail Gorbachev. We didn't get him, but we invited former Prime Minister of Russia Yegor Gaidar, whose policies were pro-Western. The visit attracted the interest of the Russian Embassy. The following year, my visa was revoked when I visited St Petersburg and I got stuck behind the border. I saw first-hand how the atmosphere in Russia began to change.”

Liuhto warned Finns about the state-owned energy company Fortum's investments in Russia on the cover of a Finnish newspaper already in spring 2008. Estimates vary, but according to Liuhto, even conservative calculations suggest that Fortum lost a couple of thousand of euros for every Finn. 

“The times were different, and people were not ready to believe those of us who warned them about Russia. Europe had made economic commitments and it would have been difficult to break away from them. People wanted to believe in economic co-operation. It would be important to review what happened so that similar mistakes are not made in the future," says Liuhto. 

Liuhto says that this is what intelligence gathering is all about. Knowledge of the operational environment, foresight, and better decision-making.

“Intelligence is not solely a military operation, nor is it just about uncovering classified information, as it is often perceived. It is the ability to gather and communicate strategic information in such a way that the individual can see around the corner, as it were, and prepare for the future. Intelligence is needed in all sectors of society, both in business life and public administration. 

Intelligence studies is a new field in Finland. Teaching on the topic has been available in many universities already, but this is the first professorship in Finland.

The professorship had been planned by the initiative of the Finnish Defence Forces for some time, but the location of the position was undecided. Liuhto was eventually invited to the professorship as a distinguished scholar of Russia and Eastern Europe.

Since taking up his post in January and with the subsequent visiting lectures, Liuhto has been busier than ever. The high level of interest in collaboration with Liuhto reflects the importance of the timing of the new position. 

Liuhto's mission is to launch teaching in intelligence studies at the University of Turku and to promote teaching and research collaboration with the National Defence University.

"During my five-year professorship, I intend to set up the structures of a new discipline. Economics, futures research, and Russia will certainly be featured in the curriculum. In addition, the University of Turku has great expertise in cyber security and China, among other things. Multidisciplinarity is our strength.”

Before Liuhto promises anything definite, he intends to talk to other universities. The aim is to strengthen the national network of intelligence education by offering expertise not available in other Finnish universities.

"Preparation is our best protection. I'm not afraid, but we should wake up. We need powerful collaboration in Europe and strong democracies."

Liuhto intends to promote research co-operation between the National Defence University and the University of Turku. In addition, Liuhto already outlines a national co-operation model for intelligence actors and journalists which would expand the use of research information.

“We in the academic world discover phenomena, but journalists are the ones who spread the information. We have excellent investigative journalists in Finland, and close co-operation could make researched knowledge available to society in a concrete way.”

Through his work, Liuhto wants to generate knowledge and competence that serve society as widely as possible.

Liuhto’s motive is personal. It has been influenced by both his family history and the threat of nuclear war he experienced as a young man.

“I was in high school when the Soviet Union and the United States were on the brink of war. I decided then that I wanted to do my part in preventing war. In a way, I am still on that path. It has been hard to watch Russia slide towards war, after more than thirty years of observing the country’s development and wanting to promote peace. It has gotten under my skin," Liuhto says.

Liuhto does not see himself returning to Russia, or to many other countries. He has also had to cut off contact with old acquaintances in Russia. 

Although Liuhto's motive is more personal than usual, he sees that everyone can contribute to securing our society.

Liuhto highlights once again the importance of foresight. The world order is changing. The big question is what kind of a power struggle will we see before the positions of the superpowers are settled. According to Liuhto, the United States and China will eventually come into conflict with each other. Compared to them, Russia is a minor player in the economic arena, but its future is also unpredictable, which casts a shadow over Europe in particular.

“Russia has tied itself to a military economy and cannot escape it easily. Even if peace is reached in Ukraine, it may not last, as Russia needs more wars to keep its economy afloat," Liuhto says.

In the worst case scenario, Russia's line will harden further and the cycle of war continues. Even in the best-case scenario, the country is facing an internal power struggle. The ensuing chaos could lead to, for instance, a surge of refugees into neighbouring countries.

“I don't know if there will be a big upheaval before I retire, but I would like to see what happens to Russia in my lifetime. In any case, Europe's position is not rosy, and we can no longer be complacent and do nothing. Preparation is our best protection. I'm not afraid, but we should wake up. We need powerful collaboration in Europe and strong democracies. This is where we can all make a difference.”

Text: Liisa Reunanen
Photos: Hanna Oksanen
Translation: Mari Ratia